Seasonal Story

On February 2, 2026, Punxsutawney Phil made his annual prediction of what the next six weeks of weather will bring. According to Phil, more winter is on the way! But what does the science say?

Our maps of heat accumulation provide a more scientific look at how much heat has accumulated so far this year, and what's next. Our maps show that heat accumulation is ahead of schedule in much of the west, on time in the Midwest and upper Northeast, and behind schedule in the East.

Each year, people gather at Gobbler's Knob in Pennsylvania to hear Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of what the next six weeks of weather will bring. This year, Phil predicted six more weeks of winter! But what does the science say? 

Climate normals are 30-year averages of weather data that provide a baseline to compare current weather. NOAA recently updated this average to the most recent 3 decades - what does this mean for our maps of spring?

Normals are long-term average climate products - they exist so we can compare today's weather to the long term average - for example, to find out if this January is colder than "normal." Since temperatures have been rising decade by decade, the period of comparison matters in showing the difference between current conditions and “normal.”

Some of our Nature' Notebook observers are reporting late season leaf out and flowering in lilacs this year. How uncommon is this late season phenology? Not too unusual, as the map shows.

Punxsutawney Phil predicted six more weeks of winter! However, our maps of heat accumulation provide a more scientific look at how much heat has accumulated so far this year, and what's next.